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Refugees as a Geopolitical Tool: Migration, Hybrid Warfare, and the Rise of Illiberal Politics

Somebody on Reddit asked recently how Poland was doing economically, and one of the Polish responders made an oblique comment about immigration — specifically the influx from Ukraine. It got me thinking: maybe Putin’s goal isn’t simply to crush Ukraine with tanks and missiles. Maybe it’s also to create refugees, because immigration — especially sudden, large-scale movements — is a near‑guaranteed way to fuel right-wing, nationalist governments. And those governments? They tend to be more sympathetic to other authoritarian regimes.

I’m not suggesting that Russia consciously planned every displaced person as a political chess piece. But there’s enough evidence to show that migration can be weaponised, intentionally or otherwise, to destabilise Europe from within.

What “migration weaponisation” means

The term comes from political science and security studies. It describes the deliberate use of migration flows to achieve strategic objectives — typically to destabilise or divide states, weaken alliances, or manipulate domestic politics. Russia and Belarus have been cited repeatedly in this context: either by creating crises at borders or facilitating irregular migration, the aim is to pressure EU states, sow discord, and distract from broader geopolitical threats.

Reports from the Henry Jackson Society and Deutsche Gesellschaft für Auswärtige Politik describe how states can provoke or manipulate migration to coerce the EU. Think of it as a hybrid form of warfare: not tanks rolling over cities, but borders, media, and politics being weaponised.

Evidence from the Polish‑Belarus border

Poland is a perfect case study. The 2021–2022 border crisis, in which Belarus encouraged migrants to cross into Poland, Lithuania, and Latvia, illustrates this tactic in action. European Parliament reports and analyses from Frontiers in Political Science describe how these “political refugees” were treated as tools — both to embarrass the EU and to strengthen nationalist sentiment in Poland.

Interestingly, Poland is simultaneously a strong supporter of Ukraine militarily, but its nationalist government leverages fear of immigrants to consolidate power. It’s a paradox: humanitarian solidarity on one hand, xenophobic politics on the other. And that tension plays exactly into the Kremlin’s hands.

Why it matters for liminal communities

This isn’t just abstract geopolitics. For communities like mine — autistic, queer, eunuch, gender-diverse, liminal in all sorts of ways — the rise of authoritarian, anti-liberal governments is deeply personal. Policies justified by fear of migration or “cultural replacement” often target those who exist outside traditional norms. Borders become more than lines on a map; they become instruments of control, of exclusion, and of ideological policing.

When nationalism rises and scapegoating spreads, the social space for trust, transparency, and nuance shrinks. And for people whose identities are already marginalized, that narrowing can feel suffocating.

Reflection: migration as both symptom and strategy

What does it mean that migration can be weaponised? That the movement of human beings — people fleeing danger, searching for safety — can become both a symptom of conflict and a strategic tool in someone else’s game? For liminal communities, it’s a reminder that politics is rarely abstract. It shapes whether you can be visible, safe, or simply left alone to exist.

And yet, recognising these dynamics also gives us a kind of agency. We can choose how we respond, how we build solidarity, and how we resist the narratives that would turn our neighbors into “threats” or “problems” rather than human beings. Awareness becomes the first form of defence.

Call to reflection and action

We might not be able to stop hybrid warfare or authoritarian governments alone. But we can:

  • Amplify voices from affected communities.
  • Support policies that protect refugees while resisting xenophobic panic.
  • Build networks of solidarity across borders and identities.
  • Question narratives that turn human displacement into a political weapon.

The real challenge — and opportunity — is to maintain empathy and clarity in a world that increasingly wants to divide us.

Sources / Bibliography (links active as of 2025)

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